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The LED Revolution: Market Analysis And Insight On Reducing Manufacturing Costs

 

 

Table Of Contents

 

 

 

Chapter 1

Introduction

1-1

 

 

 

Chapter 2

Recent Progress in High Brightness LED Technology and Applications

2-1

 

 

 

2.1

LED: Theory of Operation

2-1

2.2

Intellectual Property Map

2-5

2.3

LED Manufacturing Technologies & Costs

2-7

2.4

LED Market General Illumination

2-13

 

 

 

Chapter 3

Processing Equipment

3-1

 

 

 

3.1

Introduction

3-1

3.2

MOCVD for SSL Productivity Challenges and Solutions

3-3

3.3

Low temperature Remote Plasma Chemical Vapor Deposition (RPCVD)

3-9

3.3.1

RPCVD Process Advantages

3-9

3.4

Defect Inspection and Testing

3-12

3.5

Lithography

3-16

3.5.1

Steppers

3-16

3.5.2

Nanoimprint

3-17

3.5.3

Nanopatterning of LED Wafers

3-21

 

 

 

Chapter 4.

Materials of Construction

4-1

 

 

 

4.1

Introduction

4-1

4.2

GaN-based LED for General Lighting

4-7

4.2.1

Methods to Improve White LED Efficiency

4-18

4.2.2

Time-to-Market for LED substrates

4-20

4.3

LED Phosphor Manufacturing Issues

4-21

4.3.1

Current LED Phosphor Manufacturing

4-21

4.3.2

LED Phosphor Cost

4-22

 

 

 

Chapter 5

Packaging and Assembly Issues for High Brightness LEDs

5-1

 

 

 

5.1

Packaging for HB LEDs

5-1

5.2

Wafer Level Packaging HB LEDs

5-4

5.3

Thermal Issues

5-10

5.4

Test for HB LEDs

5-13

 

 

 

Chapter 6

National Programs As Innovation Drivers

6-1

 

 

 

6.1

DOE Solid-State Lighting Manufacturing Initiative

6-1

6.2

DOE Solid-State Lighting Program Mission and Goal

6-1

6.3

Major National Research Programs Pertaining to LEDs

6-4

6.4

Challenges Facing SSL Manufacturing

6-9

6.4.1

Inconsistent Color

6-10

6.4.2

Low Light Output

6-11

6.4.3

Challenges Facing Market Introduction

6-12

 

 

 

Chapter 7

OLED Lighting

7-1

 

 

 

7.1

Opportunities for Luminaire Manufacturers

7-1

7.2

Critical Issues for Continued OLED Market Growth

7-5

7.3

Manufacturing Options and Equipment Needs

7-9

7.4

Availability of Critical Materials

7-12

7.5

OLED Lighting Costs

7-13

 

 

 

Chapter 8

OLED Manufacturing

8-1

 

 

 

8.1

Deposition Equipment and Processes for OLED Lighting

8-1

8.2

General OLED Manufacturing Cost Considerations

8-10

8.3

Roll-to-Roll OLEDs

8-11

8.4

Lithography

8-21

8.5

Substrates and Encapsulation

8-22

8.5.1

Substrate and Encapsulation Material Selection

8-23

8.5.2

Substrate Coatings

8-24

8.5.3

Transparent Electrodes

8-25

8.5.4

Encapsulation

8-25

8.6

Inspection and Quality Control

8-26

 

 

 

Chapter 9

Outlook for the Worldwide OLED Market

9-1

 

 

 

9.1

Introduction

9-1

9.2

Passive Matrix Capacity and Demand

9-6

9.3

Active Matrix Capacity and Demand

9-9

9.4

Cost Challenges for OLED Lighting

9-11

 

 

 

Chapter 10

Outlook for the Worldwide High-Brightness LED Market

10-1

 

 

 

10.1

HB LED Technology

10-1

10.2

HB LED Market Overview and trends

10-4

10.2.1

Market Drivers for SSL

10-7

10.2.2

LED Backlights for Notebook PCs

10-8

10.2.3

LED Backlights for LCD TVs

10-10

10.2.4

LED Backlights for Other Applications

10-12

10.2.5

LED Lighting Market

10-14

10.2.6

LED Active Outdoor Display Market

10-16

10.2.7

LED Signal Market

10-18

10.2.8

LED Automotive Market

10-20

10.2.9

LED Mobile Market

10-22

 

 

 

LIST OF FIGURES

 

 

 

 

2.1

Operation of LED

2-2

2.2

Key Intellectual Property Relationships

2-6

2.3

DOE Roadmap

2-8

2.4

Relative Manufacturing Costs

2-10

2.5

Pareto Analysis Of SSL Manufacturing Costs

2-12

2.6

Market drivers for LED Biz and Applications

2-14

2.7

SSL vs. Classical Technologies

2-15

2.8

LED Performance vs. Traditional Light Sources

2-16

2.9

Energy Production and Use Comparison

2-18

2.10

White-LEDs for General Lighting Market Estimates in $B to 2020

2-20

2.11

Wafer Needs for General Lighting (2 wafer equivalents, million units to 2020)

2-21

3.1

SSL LED manufacturing with MOCVD: Productivity and Cost Analysis

3-6

3.2

Larger Wafer Size: GaN LEDs

3-7

3.3

Diagram of RPCVD Reactor

3-10

3.4

Comparison between MOCVD and RPCVD

3-11

3.5

Nanoimprint Lithography System

3-18

3.6

The Phlatlight Chip

3-23

4.1

Regular LED (white) Front-End Steps

4-5

4.2

Current Blocking Layer

4-6

4.3

Regular LED (white) Production Costs for 100k Wafers/Year

4-12

4.4

HB LED (white) Production Costs for 100k Wafers/Year

4-13

4.5

LED Cost Model: Impact of Substrate Choice

4-14

4.6

Main Manufacturing Steps for GaN-based LED

4-16

4.7

Regular LED (white) Back-End

4-17

4.8

Methods to Improve White LED Efficiency

4-19

4.9

Phosphor Coating Four Approaches

4-23

5.1

Hybrid Integration Approach to HD-LED Package

5-3

5.2

HB-LED with Silicon Carrier Submount

5-6

5.3

Silicon interposer for MEMS / LED Applications

5-7

5.4

High Brightness LED

5-8

5.5

Power Conversion for White-Light Sources

5-9

5.6

Packaging Changes Result in Optical Improvements

5-11

5.7

Substrate Solutions for HB/HP LEDs

5-12

6.1

DOE Solid-State Lighting Program Strategy

6-2

6.2

DOE Efficacy Targets

6-3

6.3

Congressional Appropriations

6-6

6.4

SSL R&D Project Funding

6-7

6.5

Price Targets

6-8

7.1

Status of Technology Towards Lighting Targets

7-7

7.2

Maximizing Internal Quantum Efficiency

7-8

7.3

Manufacturing Options

7-10

7.4

Kodak VIST Deposition Source

7-11

7.5

OLED Lighting Costs VTE process

7-14

7.6

OLED Lighting Costs: Glass Substrate

7-15

8.1

Steps of OLED Production

8-3

8.2

Industrial Coater Design Approaches

8-4

8.3

Comparison Cluster vs. In-Line Gen 2

8-5

8.4

Comparison Cluster vs. In-Line Gen 4/5

8-6

8.5

Process Flow for OLED Stack

8-8

8.6

Comparison of Deposition Sources

8-9

8.7

Roll-to-Roll OLED Fabrication

8-14

9.1

Schematic of PMOLED

9-2

9.2

PMOLED Stack/Driving Architecture

9-3

9.3

Schematic of AMOLED

9-5

9.4

Passive Matrix OLED Capacity and Demand Forecast

9-8

9.5

Active Matrix OLED Capacity and Demand Forecast

9-10

10.1

LED Market by Sector

10-24

10.2

Worldwide LED Market Forecast

10-25

 

LIST OF TABLES

 

2.1

Color, Wavelength Material Of LED

2-3

2.2

Light Source Comparison

2-17

2.13

Comparison of LED, HB-LED, UHB-LED characteristics

2-19

3.1

Epitaxy Metrics from Initial Solid-State Lighting Manufacturing R&D Roadmap

3-5

3.2

Epitaxy Metrics

3-13

4.1

Production Method for Various LEDs

4-3

4.2

Comparison of $/klm for LED Made on Various 2" Substrates

4-15

7.1

Comparison Of Lighting Technologies

7-2

7.2

OLED Displays vs OLED lighting

7-3

8.1

Manufacturing Roadmap for Sheet Processing of OLED Lighting Panels

8-15

8.2

Manufacturing Roadmap for Web Processing of OLED Lighting Panels

8-16

8.3

Projected Costs of OLED Lighting Panels (Sheet Processed) Stage

8-18

8.4

Projected Costs of OLED Lighting Panels (Web Processed) Stage

8-19

10.1

Forecast Of LED Backlights For Notebook PCs

10-9

10.2

Forecast Of LED Backlights For LCD TVs

10-11

10.3

Forecast Of LED Backlights For Other Application

10-13

10.4

Forecast Of LED Lighting Market

10-15

10.5

Forecast Of LED Active Outdoor Display Market

10-17

10.6

Forecast Of LED Signal Market

10-19

10.7

Forecast Of LED Automotive Market

10-21

10.8

Forecast Of LED Mobile Market

10-23